(16 June 2020) - The latest edition of the OECD Economic Outlook focuses on two equally probable scenarios – one in which a second wave of infections, with renewed lock-downs, hits before the end of 2020, and one in which another major outbreak is avoided.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis without precedent in living memory. It has triggered the most severe economic recession in nearly a century and is causing enormous damage to people’s health, jobs and well-being.
The lockdown measures brought in by most governments have succeeded in slowing the spread of the virus and in reducing the death toll but they have also frozen business activity in many sectors, widened inequality, disrupted education and undermined confidence in the future.
As restrictions begin to be eased, the path to economic recovery remains highly uncertain and vulnerable to a second wave of infections.
With or without a second outbreak, the consequences will be severe and long-lasting.