(05 November 2020) – The coronavirus pandemic represents a very large shock for the global and EU economies, with very severe economic and social consequences.
Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures were gradually lifted.
However, the resurgence of the pandemic in recent weeks is resulting in disruptions as national authorities introduce new public health measures to limit its spread.
The epidemiological situation means that growth projections over the forecast horizon are subject to an extremely high degree of uncertainty and risks.
The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Output in both the euro area and the EU is not expected to recover its pre-pandemic level in 2022.