(28 November 2018) – The UK economy will be 1.9%-5.5% smaller per person by 2030 under Theresa May’s painfully agreed Brexit deal, compared to if it remained in the EU, according to new research.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal will impose a sizable hit on the UK economy, according to new research published by the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank. Meanwhile, the cost to the UK’s public finances could be as much as 1.8% of GDP, said the research by the London School of Economics, King’s College and the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The hit to the UK will largely be caused by lower migration and new trading costs, the research suggests. The Brexit deal would also hand an economic hit worth 1.7% per capita to Ireland and 0.7% for the EU-27 by 2030.
However, the research warns that alternative of a ‘no deal’ Brexit would lead to economic costs of between 3.5% and 8.7% of GDP.
A study published on Monday (26 November) by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated that May’s Brexit deal will leave the UK €115 billion worse off a year than if it had remained in the EU. (EurActiv)